Nhiều ngân hàng thương mại ghi nhận mức lợi nhuận năm 2020 tăng đột biến, giá cổ phiếu tăng gấp nhiều lần
Đến thời điểm này, hầu hết các ngân hàng (NH) thương mại trên cả nước đã công bố kết quả kinh doanh năm 2020 với lợi nhuận tiếp tục khả quan, thậm chí tăng đột biến. Tuy vậy, trong bối cảnh thị trường và nền kinh tế còn nhiều khó khăn do đại dịch Covid-19, nhiều người đặt nghi vấn về sự bất thường của ngành NH.
Lãi lớn nhờ bảo hiểm, chứng khoán…
Trong 4 NH thương mại có vốn nhà nước, ngoại trừ BIDV công bố lợi nhuận giảm thì các NH khác đều giữ được “phong độ”. Cụ thể, NH TMCP Ngoại thương Việt Nam (Vietcombank) đạt 23.068 tỉ đồng lợi nhuận, tương đương năm ngoái và dẫn đầu hệ thống NH; NH Nông nghiệp và Phát triển nông thôn (Agribank) đạt gần 13.000 tỉ đồng lợi nhuận, hoàn thành kế hoạch NH Nhà nước giao.
Nhiều ngân hàng thương mại ghi nhận mức lợi nhuận năm 2020 tăng đột biến .Ảnh: TẤN THẠNH
Gây bất ngờ nhất là NH TMCP Công Thương Việt Nam (VietinBank) với tổng lợi nhuận riêng lẻ trước thuế lên tới 16.450 tỉ đồng, tăng trưởng 43,5% so với năm 2019, đứng thứ hai trong toàn hệ thống. Đáng chú ý, lợi nhuận của VietinBank vẫn tăng mạnh dù năm qua NH đã cắt giảm đến gần 5.000 tỉ đồng lợi nhuận từ việc giảm lãi vay, phí… để hỗ trợ doanh nghiệp (DN), người dân bị ảnh hưởng bởi dịch Covid-19. Theo ông Lê Đức Thọ, Chủ tịch HĐQT VietinBank, bên cạnh tín dụng, yếu tố giúp NH tăng sốc về lợi nhuận là thu nhập ngoài lãi tăng 35,2% so với năm 2019.
Trong khi đó, NH TMCP Đầu tư và Phát triển Việt Nam (BIDV) công bố năm 2020, lợi nhuận trước thuế hợp nhất đạt 9.017 tỉ đồng, vượt kế hoạch tài chính NH Nhà nước giao nhưng lại giảm 16% so với năm trước. Nguyên nhân là do NH đã chủ động giảm thu nhập hơn 6.400 tỉ đồng để thực hiện cơ cấu nợ, hạ lãi suất và miễn giảm lãi, phí để hỗ trợ DN và người dân bị ảnh hưởng bởi đại dịch Covid-19.
Ông Nghiêm Xuân Thành, Chủ tịch HĐQT Vietcombank, cho hay dù duy trì mức lợi nhuận xấp xỉ 1 tỉ USD nhưng đây là lần đầu tiên trong 5 năm qua, lợi nhuận của NH không tăng trưởng. Nguyên nhân chủ yếu là do Vietcombank đã 5 lần cắt giảm lãi vay cho DN với con số kỷ lục là 3.700 tỉ đồng hỗ trợ khách hàng ổn định hoạt động sản xuất – kinh doanh. “Kiểm soát chất lượng nợ xấu được thực hiện tốt trong bối cảnh thị trường khó khăn và tiềm ẩn nhiều rủi ro, đưa tỉ lệ nợ xấu về 0,61% trên tổng dư nợ. Đây là mức thấp nhất trong các tổ chức tín dụng cũng như trong lịch sử của NH. Điều này giúp giá cổ phiếu VCB của NH lần đầu tiên vượt lên trên 100.000 đồng/cổ phiếu, trở thành DN có mức vốn hóa cao nhất thị trường chứng khoán Việt Nam” – ông Nghiêm Xuân Thành nói.
Ở khối NH TMCP, NH Quân Đội (MB) báo lãi tới 10.688 tỉ đồng, tăng khoảng 6,5% so với 2019 và vượt 18,9% so với kế hoạch năm. Cùng với hoạt động kinh doanh hiệu quả, MB cũng tích cực triển khai nhiều giải pháp hỗ trợ người dân, DN bị ảnh hưởng bởi dịch Covid-19.
Tương tự, NH TMCP Hàng Hải Việt Nam (MSB) ước tính kết quả kinh doanh năm 2020 có nhiều chỉ tiêu vượt kế hoạch đặt ra, trong đó lợi nhuận trước thuế tăng đột biến 94,13% so với năm 2019 khi đạt 2.500 tỉ đồng.
NH TMCP Tiên Phong (TPBank) cho biết dù biên lợi nhuận từ hoạt động tín dụng giảm đáng kể do đã giảm lãi vay cho khách hàng nhưng dư nợ tín dụng của NH vẫn tăng tích cực. Thu nhập ngoài lãi, đặc biệt là thu từ dịch vụ và bảo hiểm tăng cao đã giúp lợi nhuận trước thuế năm 2020 của NH tăng 11% so với năm trước và vượt gần 8% so với kế hoạch đề ra (tương đương mức lợi nhuận trước thuế hơn 4.300 tỉ đồng).
Theo đánh giá của các chuyên gia, lợi nhuận năm 2020 của các NH tăng mạnh chủ yếu nhờ sự cải thiện tín dụng và tăng trưởng mạnh doanh thu ngoài lãi. “Việc trích lập dự phòng nợ xấu tăng ảnh hưởng một phần đến lợi nhuận NH, song nhờ đa dạng hóa nguồn thu, nhất là nguồn thu ngoài lãi, lợi nhuận NH vẫn khả quan” – chuyên gia kinh tế, TS Cấn Văn Lực nhận định.
Công ty Chứng khoán SSI cũng chỉ ra những nguyên nhân giúp lợi nhuận của nhiều NH thương mại duy trì ở mức cao là do thu nhập ngoài lãi tăng mạnh, nhất là thu nhập từ phí và hoa hồng. Bên cạnh đó, các dịch vụ thanh toán, tài trợ thương mại, bán bảo hiểm qua kênh NH và kiều hối cũng đều phục hồi.
Ngoài ra, nhiều NH thương mại nhà nước ghi nhận mức lãi ngoại hối lớn do nguồn ngoại tệ dồi dào và tỉ suất lợi nhuận lớn vì giá chào mua cao hơn của NH Nhà nước.
Nguy cơ vướng nợ xấu
Tuy nhiên, với tư cách là người trong cuộc, lãnh đạo một số NH thương mại cho rằng muốn biết một NH có “lãi đậm” hay không phải nhìn vào chỉ số an toàn, chỉ số sinh lời như ROA (tỉ suất sinh lời trên tổng tài sản) hay ROE (tỉ suất sinh lời trên vốn chủ sở hữu). Mỗi NH đều có tổng tài sản, vốn chủ sở hữu từ vài chục ngàn tỉ đồng đến hàng trăm ngàn tỉ đồng thì mức lợi nhuận vài ngàn tỉ đồng không phải là “đột biến”, “bất thường”.
Tổng giám đốc một NH cổ phần có mức lợi nhuận trên 4.000 tỉ đồng năm 2020 chia sẻ hồi giữa năm, giai đoạn thị trường đang “căng” vì dịch, NH từng có ý định điều chỉnh kế hoạch kinh doanh nhưng rất may mắn, sau đó thị trường có dấu hiệu tích cực hơn, NH chủ động điều chỉnh chiến lược kinh doanh, đẩy mạnh một số lĩnh vực khác như dịch vụ, chứng khoán… đóng góp đáng kể vào cơ cấu lợi nhuận. “Đáng lẽ kết quả kinh doanh của chúng tôi có thể cao hơn nhiều nhưng vì dành khoảng trên 1.000 tỉ đồng lợi nhuận để giảm lãi vay, chia sẻ với khách hàng trong mùa Covid-19. Chưa kể, lãi nhiều hay ít phải nhìn các chỉ số, cơ bản như ROA, ROE bởi NH là ngành kinh doanh gắn chặt với rủi ro, biến động của nền kinh tế” – vị tổng giám đốc NH này nói.
Ông Lê Thành Trung, Phó Tổng giám đốc NH TMCP Phát triển TP HCM (HDBank), cho hay trong năm có thời điểm hoạt động rất khó khăn do dịch Covid-19 nhưng NH đã vượt qua, đạt tốt các chỉ tiêu đặt ra, đặc biệt tỉ lệ nợ xấu riêng lẻ chỉ ở mức 0,75% – một trong những mức thấp nhất trên thị trường. “Dù vậy, chúng tôi không chủ quan vì thường ngành NH sẽ chịu độ trễ của chu kỳ khủng hoảng, có ảnh hưởng nhất định nên cần những kế hoạch, chiến lược chuẩn bị ứng phó trong năm 2021” – ông Lê Thành Trung nói.
Ở góc nhìn khác, việc các NH có lãi trong năm 2020 sẽ là “bộ đệm”, có dư địa cho năm 2021 trong bối cảnh nợ xấu đang tăng. Trong Báo cáo kinh tế vĩ mô 2020 và triển vọng 2021 của Viện Đào tạo và Nghiên cứu BIDV, các chuyên gia phân tích nhận định rủi ro nợ xấu đang gia tăng. Đến cuối năm 2020, tỉ lệ nợ xấu của hệ thống NH đã vượt mức 2%, song vẫn trong tầm kiểm soát nhờ việc NH Nhà nước cho phép cơ cấu lại nợ mà không phải chuyển nhóm nợ để có thể cho vay mới phục vụ sản xuất – kinh doanh (theo Thông tư 01 về cơ cấu lại nợ, miễn giảm lãi vay)…
Quan trọng không kém, nhiều chuyên gia nhìn nhận các tổ chức tín dụng sẽ tiếp tục phải chấp nhận “hy sinh” lợi nhuận trong năm 2021 để có nguồn lực xử lý nợ xấu. Một lãnh đạo NH Nhà nước cũng cho biết đã yêu cầu các NH thương mại cân nhắc, xem xét trong chỉ tiêu lợi nhuận năm nay để giảm lãi suất cho vay nhằm hỗ trợ khách hàng và nền kinh tế sớm phục hồi sau đại dịch.
Cổ phiếu “vua” tăng giá
Theo báo cáo của các công ty chứng khoán, tính đến hết năm 2020, nhóm cổ phiếu NH đã tăng 27,6% so với đầu năm và tăng 73,9% so với mức đáy vào tháng 3, vượt xa mức tăng của VN-Index lần lượt là 13% và 6%.
Cụ thể, trong nhóm 24 mã cổ phiếu NH có đến 21 mã tăng, chỉ 3 mã giảm. Trong đó, SHB tăng mạnh nhất ngành, từ 5.350 đồng/cổ phiếu vọt lên 17.000 đồng/cổ phiếu, tương ứng tỉ suất sinh lời gần 218%. Kế đến, cổ phiếu VIB tăng mạnh từ đầu tháng 8-2020, nhảy từ 15.000 đồng/cổ phiếu lên hơn 32.000 đồng/cổ phiếu, tương ứng mức tăng 125% so cuối năm 2019. Mã LPB cũng nằm trong danh sách tốp 3 cổ phiếu NH tăng mạnh nhất năm 2020. LPB khởi đầu chỉ hơn 6.300 đồng/cổ phiếu, sau đó liên tục tăng và đạt mức 12.400 đồng/cổ phiếu vào cuối năm 2020. Ngoài ra, các mã NH trụ cột tại sàn HoSE như VCB, BID, CTG, VPB, STB… đều tăng mạnh từ 50%-70% trong năm qua.
Các chuyên gia cho rằng ngành NH là hàn thử biểu cho nền kinh tế, khi Covid-19 ảnh hưởng tiêu cực nền kinh tế, giá cổ phiếu NH bị tác động đầu tiên. Đến khi dịch bệnh dần được kiểm soát, niềm tin bắt đầu hồi phục, cộng với các chính sách hỗ trợ của nhà nước đã thúc đẩy nhóm cổ phiếu “vua” tăng mạnh. Đặc biệt, các quỹ đầu tư theo chỉ số (ETF) nội cũng đã đổ một lượng lớn tiền vào rổ chỉ số, nơi mà nhóm phiếu NH chiếm tỉ trọng cao, cũng là nguyên nhân đẩy giá cổ phiếu NH tăng vọt.
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